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The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges lower during the Asian session on Friday after data released from Japan showed that the annual National Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed in February. This, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick, assists the USD/JPY pair to build on the overnight bounce from the weekly low and move back above the 149.00 mark in the last hour. However, bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates, amid expectations that strong wage growth could boost consumer spending and contribute to rising inflation, should limit JPY losses.
Furthermore, persistent uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies and their impact on the global economy, along with geopolitical risks, should act as a tailwind for the safe-haven JPY. Meanwhile, bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon amid a tariff-driven slowdown, which might hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets, mark a big divergence in comparison to hawkish BoJ expectations. This might further contribute to limiting losses for the lower-yielding JPY and capping the upside for the USD/JPY pair.
From a technical perspective, any further move up beyond the 149.25-149.30 immediate hurdle could assist the USD/JPY pair to reclaim the 150.00 psychological mark. Some follow-through buying beyond the 150.15 area might prompt a short-covering rally and lift spot prices to the 150.60 intermediate barrier en route to the 151.00 mark and the monthly peak, around the 151.30 region.
On the flip side, the Asian session low, around the 148.60-148.55 region, now seems to protect the immediate downside, below which the USD/JPY pair could accelerate the fall towards the weekly low, around the 148.28-148.15 area touched on Thursday. This is followed by the 148.00 mark and the 147.75 horizontal support, which if broken should pave the way for a fall towards the 147.30 region en route to the 147.00 mark and the 146.55-146.50 area, or the lowest level since early October touched earlier this month.
Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on a monthly basis, measures the price fluctuation of goods and services purchased by households nationwide excluding fresh food, whose prices often fluctuate depending on the weather. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Thu Mar 20, 2025 23:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 3%
Consensus: 2.9%
Previous: 3.2%
Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan