Forex Flash: US data may provoke a CAD reaction – TD Securities

The USD/CAD remains limited by the 1.0250/1.0315 range and broader signals from the FX market have been weak as well. “Today we finally get the first North American data release that could provoke a CAD reaction:  US retail sales”, wrote analysts Shaun Osborne and Greg Moore, pointing to a “slightly above consensus expectations for consumer activity in February and since positive US data is good for the USD now, that suggests USD/CAD would be supported by the release”.

TD Securities analysts see more risk for a down slide: “A downside miss could be more influential, particularly considering the considerable speculative CAD short position at the moment (as seen in Friday’s CFTC report)”, they wrote, adding that “on the charts, a stronger base has formed near 1.0250 for USD/CAD. A break below would look to 1.0215/20, and topside resistance remains near 1.0315, before 1.0340".