USD/CAD: Recovery remains capped below 1.2500 as oil pokes 13-day top

• USD/CAD remains subdued inside a 30-pips range portrayed late Friday.
• US dollar recover fades amid stimulus hopes, re-think over mixed data and virus updates.
• Oil stays firmer as US Secretary of State Blinken alleges Iran for Oman attack, China’s PBOC backs easy money.

USD/CAD stays sidelines around 1.2470, fading Friday’s recovery moves from the lowest since July 06, amid the initial Asian session on Monday. The weekend developments concerning China, Iran and covid seem to have probes the previous recovery moves of the pair amid a quiet session.

After China’s crackdown on IT and private education stocks, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) also tightened rules from the Beijing-based companies. However, the market regulator from the dragon nation called for “closer communication with Washington in a bid to ease tensions after the US tightened controls,” per the Financial Times (FT).

Elsewhere, Reuters came out with the news saying, “The United States and Britain said on Sunday they believed Iran carried out an attack on an Israeli-managed petroleum product tanker off the coast of Oman on Thursday that killed a Briton and a Romanian, both pledging to work with partners to respond.”

On the positive side, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) conveyed, during the weekend, that the bank will maintain prudent, flexible & targeted monetary policy, receding policy tightening fears.

While news from China and concerning Iran seems to favor oil prices, the latest covid updates suggesting an improvement in the virus-led death numbers, mainly due to the vaccinations, also keep USD/CAD sellers hopeful as the same cut US dollar’s safe-haven demand. On the same line, Friday’s lesser-than-forecast US Core PCE Price Index data also backed the Fed’s defense to the easy-money policy.

Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures print 0.33% gains by the press time but the 0.12% intraday gains of oil favor the USD/CAD sellers by the press time.

Looking forward, a light calendar in the US and Canada keeps USD/CAD traders directed towards oil price moves and risk catalysts for fresh impulse.

Technical analysis

Failures to cross 200-DMA, near 1.2590, portray a slower grind towards the 100-DMA close to 1.2370.